# H1 unique-target repeated-prediction aggregate

Verification Status: COMPUTED_PENDING_INDEPENDENT_RECOMPUTATION

This analysis averages repeated historical test appearances within target before inference. It is not full OOF because some eligible targets were never tested.

## Coverage

| model | eligible_targets | unique_tested_targets | never_tested_targets | reused_test_targets | test_appearances | mean_model_rmse | mean_zero_rmse | mean_train_mean_rmse | mean_model_cosine | mean_train_mean_cosine | mean_residual_cosine |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ridge_v1 | 2160 | 1646 | 514 | 787 | 2700 | 0.112339 | 0.123319 | 0.117674 | 0.34645 | 0.347336 | 0.249903 |

## Tests

| family | comparison | n_unique_targets | mean_paired_difference | bootstrap_ci95_low | bootstrap_ci95_high | alternative | paired_sign_flip_p | bootstrap_replicates | sign_flip_permutations | holm_p_within_family |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| rmse | rmse_vs_zero | 1646 | -0.0109801 | -0.0126913 | -0.00932971 | less | 1.99996e-05 | 10000 | 50000 | 3.99992e-05 |
| rmse | rmse_vs_train_mean | 1646 | -0.00533508 | -0.0063559 | -0.0043427 | less | 1.99996e-05 | 10000 | 50000 | 3.99992e-05 |
| directional | raw_cosine_vs_train_mean | 1646 | -0.000886288 | -0.00541721 | 0.00363214 | greater | 0.649967 | 10000 | 50000 | 0.649967 |
| directional | perturbation_specific_residual_cosine_vs_zero | 1646 | 0.249903 | 0.232155 | 0.267785 | greater | 1.99996e-05 | 10000 | 50000 | 3.99992e-05 |

## Gates

| analysis | n_unique_tested_targets | relative_rmse_improvement_vs_zero | relative_rmse_improvement_vs_train_mean | rmse_composite_gate | raw_directional_gate | residual_directional_gate | strict_raw_composite_gate | full_oof_eligibility |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| unique_target_repeated_prediction_aggregate | 1646 | 0.0890385 | 0.0453378 | PASS | FAIL | PASS | FAIL | FAIL_NOT_ALL_ELIGIBLE_TARGETS_TESTED |